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India’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by about 18.5% with an upward bias in the first quarter, a State Bank of India researcher wrote in an Ecowrap report.
This estimate is lower than RBI’s GDP growth forecast of 21.4% for the April-June quarter.
“Based on our’nowcast’model, we expect GDP growth in the first quarter to be around 18.5% (with upward bias),” they write.
The high growth rate in the first quarter is mainly due to the low base.
SBI has developed a “Nowcast Model” with 41 high frequency indicators related to industrial activity, service activity, and the global economy.
Researchers expect gross value added (GVA) to grow by 15% in the first quarter of 2010.
Meanwhile, the ultra-high frequency index-based business activity index rose further in August, adding that the latest reading for the week ending August 16 was 103.3.
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